Lessons learned by friend and foe from Putin’s debacle

Putin’s war on Ukraine is likely to bring down at least one and possibly two countries by the end. For a war whose last phase was less than a week ago, some things are clear. The Russian invasion was blatant and undisguised, any pretense of finding an immediate and plausible excuse for war (against longstanding grievances) has absolutely failed. As Edward Luttwak memorably noted, Putin had changed from the “patient hunter” to the “reckless gambler”.[1] And unlike previous Russian actions, it was neither a short and quick coup (as in the Crimea) nor a seizure of certain border regions nor a proxy-like operation.

Russia’s attempt to openly take control of an entire large country was more like the United States entering Iraq than Putin’s past aggressions, except that the Americans were able to have their action sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council. UN (UNSCR 1441). China and Russia, Putin’s Russia, voted in favor of a resolution which the Americans then used as a pretext for war (France said it would veto a second resolution explicitly authorizing war) . Russia had no diplomatic cover for this war, however flimsy or exaggerated.

Putin’s latest moves are a far cry from how his two allies, Iran and China, used to project power (all three held naval exercises just before the crisis).[2] Iran threatens outright war against Israel and the United States all the time. But when he does actually wage war, he has used his ability to bury himself in sensitive regimes or find local proxies to give himself some sort of cover. While the Iranians fought on the ground in Syria serving the Assad regime (alongside Russia), in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Gaza, he mostly waged war – a savage war and bloody – through intermediaries. When the Houthis fire missiles and launch drones at civilian targets in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, it is Iran who is behind the trigger, although Iran is apparently at peace with both countries. Nobody’s fooled, but it’s just enough of a fig leaf for those who want to look the other way, like the Europeans, to do so.

While Iran has dug into regional regimes to indirectly project power and wage war in the Middle East (while bragging about direct war), China has dug into regimes globally and into the global economic system, projecting his power there while expanding militarily and making his intentions for the “unification” of the mainland with crystal clear Taiwan. It has even attempted to expand into Ukraine, attempting to acquire major Ukrainian aerospace maker Motor Sich, a scheme sabotaged by Ukraine in 2021 for strategic reasons and under US impetus.[3] Motor Sich then agreed to supply engines for Turkish Akinci strike drones.[4]

Russia’s debacle in Ukraine will provide important lessons for Putin’s friends in Tehran and Beijing on what to do and what to avoid. Patience, obfuscation, and misdirection are key to assured success in their expansion programs. US hegemony over the global financial system has been underscored by Western reactions to the Russian invasion and this reality will factor into their considerations. On the contrary, it will encourage both states to be better prepared to mitigate Western economic retaliation in the event of future crises. Russia spent a decade preparing to insulate itself from this Western response and failed days after the war began.[5]

Lebanon’s unofficial Hezbollah spokesperson featured a remarkable column by its editor-in-chief Ibrahim Al-Amin on February 25, the day after the war in Ukraine began.[6] Al-Amin admitted to being ‘concerned’ about Russia attacking a neighboring country, but ultimately saw the war as a reason to ‘rejoice’ in the hope that a Russian victory would bring down the West . Such a downfall would mean the rise of the Global South freed from the chains of the West, from the hatred and anger of “the white man living in Washington, Paris, London, Berlin, Tokyo or Montreal”. Meanwhile, the party line in Tehran is that the West cannot be trusted to defend its friends (a message to America’s allies in the Middle East) and that if Ukraine had retained nuclear weapons, it would not have been attacked.[7]

The devastating effect of the sanctions map used by the West against Russia is not lost on the Chinese government either. In remarks on February 25 accusing the United States of being the culprit in the conflict in Ukraine, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying repeatedly criticized the United States’ “illegal unilateral sanctions”, noting that the US use of sanctions had increased tenfold over the past 20 years.[8]

If America’s enemies have learned important lessons from the Russian-Ukrainian war, so have others. Doughty Ukraine’s resistance underscored the obvious fact that the best defense is what you can do yourself, and not just relying on former allies and alliances. NATO states will strengthen their defenses, but Ukraine and lingering concerns about US reliability in the region will only deepen the intentions of Middle Eastern governments, such as some Gulf states, be able to defend themselves with the latest weapons, build their own capabilities and rely on suppliers from more than one country.

Finally, the ugly Russian war in Ukraine, and in particular the resistance of the Ukrainian people, is, in a way, an undeserved gift to a seemingly adrift Biden administration on foreign policy. If the Ukrainians had withdrawn and Kiev had been occupied in three or four days, the world would have a very different story today. Although not used to prevent war, once again the “quick fix” of American foreign policy – economic sanctions – have been able to seriously harm an adversary from afar, particularly because the acceptance of ‘Such a measure has been widely accepted, in Europe and even in East Asia.

But the warning issued six years ago by Obama’s Treasury Secretary Jack Lew of the danger of “excessive sanctions” remains.[9] He feared that the more sanctions are used, the more likely foreigners are to find ways to do business safely outside the financial umbrella of the United States (and its friends). An America with a strong domestic economy, a revitalized domestic manufacturing base, and a sound currency can delay the day when this “quick fix becomes a poison pill.”[10] The Ukrainian war has done many things so far, one of them is to reconfirm the enduring relevance of armies, nation states and borders, as if there were any doubt. While the strong reaction to Russia’s invasion seems to underscore the power of globalization, many countries in the South and East will see it as justification for the growing value of autarky.

*Yigal Carmon is President of MEMRI. Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.