Alvin M. Keeling 
Avoiding making the same mistake with Taiwan will be key to averting a long, drawn-out war that could backfire on the Chinese Communist Party, Beijing reportedly concluded.
While Taiwan’s unification with the mainland is part of President Xi Jinping’s strategy to ‘revive’ the Chinese nation by 2050, and Beijing was previously thought to be preparing for ‘armed reunification’ At some point in the next five to 10 years, many Western governments believe a military offensive will come sooner, with Xi having learned lessons from Russia’s failures in Ukraine.
In last year’s Integrated Review, the government outlined how the Indo-Pacific is at the center of intensifying geopolitical competition with potential hotspots ranging from unresolved territorial disputes to nuclear proliferation and calculation errors.
Climate change and non-state threats from terrorism and serious organized crime are also included in this sphere. The region is also known to be at the forefront of new security challenges, including in cyberspace.
Taiwan is once again a hotspot
Diplomatic sources have previously said that when China decides to take Taiwan by force, it will aim to do so via a lightning-fast 48-hour offensive so the West has no time to react.
Earlier this month, China repeatedly surrounded the island to show its fury after Nancy Pelosi, a senior Democrat and third in line to the US presidency, became the oldest visitor to the territory in 25 years.
On Tuesday, the Taiwanese military fired warning shots at a Chinese drone that flew over one of its islands near the Chinese coast, in an unprecedented move sparked by weeks of repeated incursions.
Taipei has reported an increase in drone flights over military outposts on remote Taiwanese islets since Beijing stepped up military exercises in response to Ms Pelosi’s visit.
This weekend he threatened to shoot down the drones if they ignored warnings to leave.
Video of at least two commercial drone missions has circulated widely on Chinese social media, including one where Taiwanese soldiers can be seen throwing rocks to chase it away.
Taiwan Defense Command on the frontline Kinmen Archipelago reported another drone flying in a restricted area about 200m from a military lookout at a height of 30m on Shi Islet on Monday afternoon , confirming that he fired flares before flying off towards Xiamen. , China.
In a statement, the command revealed for the first time its drone encounter response plan as “firing flares, reporting the incursion, kicking the drone out and ultimately shooting it down,” the wire reported. Taiwanese press release CNA.
It’s unclear whether the policy is new, but the military has recently been criticized for doing too little to counter drone incidents.
The Ministry of Defense has so far refrained from more forceful countermeasures than flares to avoid an escalation of tensions.
However, on Monday, China dismissed Taiwan’s complaints about repeated harassment by drones.
“Chinese drones flying over Chinese territory is not something to make a fuss about,” said Zhao Lijian, spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry.
